Impacts of Climate Changes on the Water Quality Management of the Sutla/Sotla River Basin

izvorni znanstveni rad

izvorni znanstveni rad

Impacts of Climate Changes on the Water Quality Management of the Sutla/Sotla River Basin

Vrsta prilog sa skupa (u zborniku)
Tip izvorni znanstveni rad
Godina 2023
Nadređena publikacija 2023 Aarhus, Denmark SWAT Conference Book of Abstracts
Stranice str. ---
Status objavljeno

Sažetak

The Sutla/Sotla River Basin is a rural transboundary river basin between the Republic of Slovenia and the Republic of Croatia with a size of 590,6 km2. After the construction of the Vonarje dam in the 1980s, the Sutla Lake/reservoir Vonarje was constructed with a volume of 12.4 million m3. Shortly after filling, the reservoir eutrophicated due to nutrient pollution from point and diffuse sources, so it was emptied in 1989 and is now serving as a water retention work for flood protection. Transboundary rural water quality management within integrated river basin management requires at least good status of all river basin water bodies, reducing the risk of water eutrophication and sediment input into waters. In this research, the Soil Water Assessment Tool Model (SWAT) has been used for the spatial quantification of nutrients and sediment. The model is based on river basin pressure analysis with climate changes, the presence or lack of reservoir, and the occurrence of hydrological extreme impacts, as well as a program of basic and supplementary measures. The impact assessment was modelled with the SWAT model by applying the basic and supplementary measures. Eight future climate change scenarios were obtained with six models for the RCP 4.5 (moderately optimistic scenario) and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods for the Sutla River Basin, six dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs), CCLM4 (drivModel: CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5), CCLM4 (drivModel: MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR), HIRHAM5, INERIS, RACMO22E and RCA4. For the Sutla River Basin, eight FUTURE scenarios (with reservoir: 3a1 RCP 4.5 2020–2050, 3a2 RCP 4.5 2070–2100, 3a3 RCP 8.5 2020–2050, 3a4 RCP 8.5 2070–2100 and without reservoir: 3b1 RCP 4.5 2020–2050, 3b2 RCP 4.5 2070–2100, 3b3 RCP 8.5 2020–2050 and 3b4 RCP 8.5 2070–2100) were developed. The numerical modelling results of the impact assessment for all scenarios are presented (Values for Qav., year (m3/s), sediment (t), and total N (t) for the measurement profile before the Sutla River flows into the Sava River are shown). The values for all scenarios present the average percentage increase or decrease in the value in relation to the present scenario. The Qav./year values for the future scenario are lowest for RCP 4.5 (2020–2050), followed by RCP 8.5 (2070–2100). In some scenarios, the range of these values shows an average flow of up to 17% (-7; 50) or 25% for sediment (-3; 84), while in total N and total P, these changes are lower. The results of climate change scenarios indicate a potentially significant increase in Sutla River flow and sediment transport, but not nutrients, resulting from the implemented basic measures. However, hot spots in some subbasins have been identified, and appropriate supplementary measures would need to be applied to them. One very convenient, straightforward, and practical measure is applying a buffer zone 3 m from the watercourse.

Ključne riječi

climate change, water flow, sediment, nutrients, transboudary catchment