Growth Models for the Forecasting of New Product Market Adoption

Appropriate forecasting of product market adoption enables optimal planning of resources, investments, revenue, marketing and sales. Quantitative forecasting methods for the new product adoption rely on the S-shaped (sigmoidal) growth model such as the logistic, the Richards and Bass growth models. This paper presents adaptations of these models by introducing explanatory and marketing variables which are suitable for the forecasting prior to product launch or in the early phases of the product life cycle.