doktorski rad
The forecasting of telecommunications services techno-economic indicators for business planning purposes has become increasingly significant, especially for telecommunications equipment manufacturers and telecom operators. The scope of Thesis was the research and development of the analytical method for forecasting of telecommunications service life-cycle quantitative factors. The analytical forecasting method was based on the modelling of known parts of certain telecommunications service's life cycle, with the purpose of their extrapolation on its unknown life cycle interval. Developed models, which form parts of the analytical method, are based on quantitative time series forecasting with ability to accept external judgementally determined variables. Moreover, auxiliary parameters are introduced in models to enable adjusting of model to the specific practical requirements. It has been found that the Bass model with explanatory parameters is optimal for forecasting of new service market adoption. In the case of existing service, developed Universal Model for Successive Segments is the optimal balance of flexibility and simplicity. Procedure for direct assessment of logistic model sensitivity to uncertainty of input data has been developed and tested. In addition, models for forecasting of revenue elements have been analysed and developed.
Quantitative forecasting methods; Service life cycle segments; Bass model with explanatory parameters; Uncertainty of forecasted market capacity; Composite growth models; Market share modelling; Markov chains based on diffusion growth; Pricing models
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